Uncertainty Quantification in Lava Flow Hazard Modeling and Real-Time Source Term Provision

Recent meetings on 20 Feb , 2017

Uncertainty quantification in lava flow hazard modeling and real-time source term provision

Catania, Italy, 20-24 February 2017

Organisers: Ciro Del Negro, Sonia Calvari, Andrew Harris

Between the 20 and 24 February, 2017, a workshop on Quantifying Lava Flow Hazards in Response to Effusive Eruption was held at the Etneo Observatory of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) in Catania (Italy). The title of the workshop was “Workshop on Uncertainty Quantification in Lava Flow Hazard Modeling and Real-Time Source Term Provision”, and the full program detail is given in Annex 4a.

The scientific objective of the workshop was that of creating a common and shared vision on the following crucial points for hazard evaluation, detection and simulation during effusive eruption disasters:
1. identification of uncertainties in measuring the textural (vesicle and crystallinity), temperature, chemical and rheological properties in active lavas and their variation in time and space.
2. definition of community-agreed standards and uncertainty for hot spot detection in satellite data, and lava flow simulation models;
3. completion of an assessment of the applicability of each hot spot detection or lava flow emplacement algorithm to certain data and activity combinations;
4. definition of the likely precision and range of output for each case;
The working group comprised 43 delegates from Italy, France (including Réunion), UK, Germany, and Spain. The group, as listed in Annex 4b, also included four delegates from the USA. Thematically, the group comprised five fields:

  • Measuring and understanding active lavas (eight delegates);
  • Remote detection, observation and tracking of effusive events (eight delegates);
  • Modelling to simulate and forecast lava inundation hazards (eight delegates);
  • Communication, knowledge, and responsibilities in lava flow hazards (seven delegates);
  • Proposal of initiatives (four delegates).

Added to this there were the three conveners:

  • Ciro Del Negro (INGV – Catania);
  • Sonia Calvari (INGV – Catania);
  • Andrew Harris (LMV, Université Blaise Pascal);

Plus three master students from University of Catania and University of Strasbourg, and three INGV-TecnoLab staff members.
The group was supportive of the following actions:
1. Strengthening of our interdisciplinary working group called RED-LAVA that includes the remote sensing, modelling and hazard response communities with a volcanic hazard focus.
2. Re-submission of the “Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation to prevent Effusive Eruption Disasters” (RED SEED) COST action proposal for the 7 September 2017 data collection.
3. Integrate numerical models in a web-GIS platform, in which field observations and satellite-derived output will be used as input to the models for near-real-time lava flow hazard assessment
4. Proposal of a special issue of an international journal on the supervised satellite modelling strategy collecting the results presented at the meeting.